2012-13 NBA preview

Lakers House, Staples Center from NBA 2K13

So tonight we kick of the 2012-13 NBA season with a couple of pretty interesting games on TNT. First the Celtics travel to South Beach to take on the defending champions, Miami Heat followed by the Dallas Mavericks being hosted by my Los Angeles Lakers. I’ll be looking into the favorites for this season, surprises and other things to expect during the basketball year.

This is one of those seasons where I don’t expect many contenders for the title. There are maybe 3 teams who I give a legit shot at the O’Brien trophy. Miami, LA, OKC are top contenders (according to my sports book the Heat are the favs at only +120, while LA and the Thunder are at +200); two other teams that could be interesting to watch are the Celtics and the Spurs. Beyond that I can’t see anyone even coming close to these 3 big ones.

My main focus will be those 3 teams starting with the defending champs. It’s no secret I hate the Heat with passion but there is no denying they are a great team, not for nothing the won it all last year. The core of the team, LeBron, Wade and Bosh, remains intact and they’ve added some interesting pieces, mainly Rashad Lewis and Ray Allen. While these 2 won’t put up All Star numbers they will be of great help off the bench, one of their few weaknesses last season, and will help keep the Big 3 rested and in top form for when they are required to perform. LeBron is the greatest physical specimen in the league, I still doubt his mental toughness but last year he proved he has enough of what it takes to be a champion.

The Oklahoma Thunder had a coming out party in the playoff series vs the Spurs last year; they are true contenders and will be great this year. The topic of recent conversation regarding them was the departure of James Harden, the thing was Harden (who has the greatest NBA beard ever) wanted more money in a shorter period of time and the Thunder would not give it to him, so they set up a deal this past weekend with the Houston Rockets that sent Harden, Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to H-Town for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two 1^st round draft picks and a 2^nd rounder. All in all it was a good deal for both sides; the Thunder didn’t really lose THAT much, got a solid player in K-Mart and a gamble on Lamb, plus the draft picks; also Harden got his extension with a 6 million upgrade as to what OKC offered him. This being said I don’t think this changes the Thunder’s chances at a title, neither does Vegas; Westbrook and Durant are spectacular, Ibaka is a monster on D and they will be in serious contention for the title but will wind up coming up a bit shot.

Now on to the Lakers. Did any team have a better offseason? Ever? They only lost often injured and yet to fulfill his potential Andrew Bynum in the deal that got them Dwight Howard. Any smart NBA follower will tell you this is a steal, and it is! While Howard is a diva, you know you’ll get 15-15 night in and night out and a huge post presence that few teams have. Then you get Steve Nash who is not nearly what he was 5 years ago but will be a huge upgrade to any PG the Lakers have had in recent memory, he will be great for the pick and roll and will create a ton of shots for Kobe. The impact of Nash is beyond description, the amount of energy Kobe expends to fight for a shot is astonishing and Steve will be of huge help with this. So all in all you get a hall of famer PG, a future HOFer Center in addition to Kobe, Gasol and Metta World Peace, can’t get much better in a 5 month span. Will the Lakers win it all? Will everything work to perfection in year one? Not sure on both questions, we could have a case of what happened to Miami in year one of the Big 3. Still LA should win the West with ease.

As I said before, these are the only 3 teams I give a chance to win the title. That is not to say that there won’t be other fun teams & surprises. For one, the Portland Trailblazers will be a really entertaining team night in and night out; they won’t win more than 40 games but all 82 will be real enjoyable. Denver is another one of those fast paced, don’t care about defense teams who always provides some fun TV time. Chicago will be fun to watch, and depending if D-Rose returns could be a contender for the title; I see an interesting scenario where the Bulls are 6 or 7^th in the East and Rose comes back around March and they make a serious run at the Heat. Also the Houston Rockets will be pretty solid.

Who will take the main individual awards this year?

• MVP: Kevin Durant; barring a long setback due to injury he will be a monster in 12-13
• Scoring champ: KD will take this one for the 3^rd straight year
• Defensive player of the year: Dwight Howard, closely challenged by Serge Ibaka
• Rookie of the year: Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Hornets

As you can see the main awards will be distributed between Lakers and Thunder, thus my prediction of them having great years.

Now the million dollar question, who will reach the NBA Finals and win it all? I’m going with pretty much everyone else’s prediction: Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat. The winner? Logic says it will be the Heat but I’m going with my Lakers –actually saw a NBA 2K13 simulation of the whole season and it predicted the same outcome with LA winning the Finals in 7 games (for the article click here)

Who is your team? Who do you expect to win it all?

Mr Khakbaz out!

Go Lakers!

NBA Finals

And the there were 2 (yeah I’ve been watching to much Seinfeld), we are finally down to the final two teams in the NBA Playoffs, that means it’s NBA Finals time.

We’ve got the Miami Heat taking on the Dallas Mavericks, starting out Tuesday at 9PM ET on ABC

Both teams come in as hot a possible at predicting this will be a tough one, so lets break each team down to see who has a possible advantage at winning it all.

Dallas Mavericks

Without a doubt Dirk Nowitzki has been the player of these playoffs. No one has been more reliable, made bigger shots and carried the team on his shoulder. He has been a force in the paint, from mid-range and from behind the 3 point line, all in all averaging 28.4 points a game (2nd only to Kevin Durant). Oh and what can I say about his free throw shooting, he is 130 out of 140; that translates into a 92.9%. Just all in all a great player, and from what you hear in press conferences and interviews, a great team leader. He has been often regarded as a soft player due to his laid back attitude, I believe nothing is further from the truth and these 15 games have proven that

Along with Dirk’s spectacular play, 38 year old Jason Kidd has played his part really well. While he doesn’t have the speed he had 94 years ago he arrived at the NBA, he makes up with smarts and experience. He is averaging 7.7 assists per game and has averaged 2.2 steals per game; along with all the intangible he brings to the court.

To complement Kidd come Jason Terry and JJ Barea. Terry, the only other survivor along with Nowitzki from that 2006 team, we know about and know what he is capable off -great player off the bench, provides a spark, can run with the best of them, and when he gets hot he can take over a game -if not, ask the Lakers what happened after he was burning them up and ended the game 9 for 10 from behind the arc. Barea we, or casual fans, didn’t know much about, but he has been an incredibly valuable asset; his speed and aggressive style provide a change of pace from what defenses see from J-Kidd and the JET, he has been a huge spark for the team and has really come into his own come playoff time -even with the huge cheap shot he took from Andrew Bynum-.

Inside the paint we’ve got Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion, both of whom haven’t put great individual numbers but represent what the Mavs are all about, getting the best result for the team regardless of who scores the basket.

Dallas comes off beating Portland 4 games to 2, sweeping the Lakers 4-0 (the most dominant playoff series win in a long, long time), and finally ousting the OKC Thunder 4-1 in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Miami Heat

There is no secret that I loathe the Heat, to me they are the furthest definition of what a team should be. They are just a gathering of All-Stars who have no idea on how to play as a team. I was convinced they wouldn’t make it far due to this, yet they got to the final step of the way. Could it be enough or has their luck run out?

First and foremost they have Lebron James. Possibly one of the most gifted player since… nah I’m not going to compare him to a true legend. A great all around player who has only one thing on his agenda, himself. Just the other day I tweeted with my Beachbody coach (@katiechoudary, check her out even if you don’t work out, she motivates the heck out of you to make every day count) and we were talking about players with class, she mentioned Derrick Rose and I was totally with her on the point that the kid shows class in every thing he does on and off the court; another example would be Ray Allen and Doc Rivers who showed the utmost class when the Heat were celebrating the win as if it was a Title, they stayed on the court to shake their hands and acknowledge they were beaten by the better team. On the other hand Lebron has no such attribute, from his infamous “The Decision” special, to his comments and all around attitute; they just scream out ASSHOLE. All that being said, there is no doubt he is on of the best players on the court today.

Along with James we’ve got D-Wade, who in my opinion is the most complete player there is in the world -there, I said it-. He plays every aspect of the game at a high lever, he may not be the best in all of them but when you put all the pieces together you get the most well rounded player there is. He is one of my favorites in and out of the arena and it’s a shame that people boo him just because he is associated with Lebron.

Along with those 2 come Chris Bosh, Mario Chalmers, Mike Bibby and a whole cast of players that will no doubt play a huge role on how the series will evolve.

The Heat come into the Finals after beating Philadelphia 4-1 in the 1st round, the Celtics 4-1 in the 2nd, and finally the Bulls 4-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Final(s) Breakdown

• Both teams have a 12-3 record
• Dallas has the bigger series win (4-0) over the Lakers
• Dallas has a better scorer in the Playoffs with Dirk’s 28.4 PPG compared to LeBron’s 26.0 PPG
• Dallas has a better assist man in Jason Kidd with 7.7 APG during the playoffs
• As a team Dallas has been scoring 99.7 PPG to Miami’s 92.9 (8.8 point difference)
• Miami has better team defense as they allow 88.3 PPG to the Mavs’ 92.5 (4.2 PPG difference)
• Dallas still has the better difference between PPG scored vs PPG alloved with +7.2 to Miami’s +4.6 (second place these playoffs, not a coincidence)
• Dallas has a better FG% 46.3% to the Heat’s 44.3%
• Miami’s Defensive FG% is better with 41.9% vs the 44.6% posted by Dallas
• 3PT FG% is owned by Dallas with 38.8% against Miami’s 32.2%
• The arena noise, from what I’ve heard on TV (I’ve only been to the American Airlines Center in DFW  and it LOUD even in a mid-season game) is some much more of a factor in Dallas. I feel bad when the game starts in Miami as you see a ton of empty seats.

From the bullet points (not taking in account the crowd factor) Dallas has a 7-2 lead yet when it comes to picking a real winner it is so much harder that just these stats. The series opens in Miami and most betting sites have the Heat a 4.5 point favorite with a 187.5 point O/U. That is much bigger of a difference than what I expected. Also they are putting Miami as the favorite as you have to bet 17.5 dollars to win 10 while Dallas pays you $14.50 for every 10 you bet. That is so one sided.

Who you got? I’d love to hear your thoughts on this or any other topic in the comments section

With all that said, my final pick to win the 2011 NBA Title is:

Dallas Mavericks in 6 games.

P.S. If Dallas wins the 1st game I will say it’s over right on the spot. Let’s see how it goes and I’ll post my thoughts on Game 1 tomorrow night or early Wednesday.

For now…

Mr Khakbaz out!!!

NBA Conference Semifinals

>Well we’re off with a bang in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. To say that we have had some incredible games is an understatement. Basically every series was competitive to some degree and without a doubt we’ve gotten some see-to-believe finishes.
16 teams started, we had some favorites get the early boot (Spurs I’m looking at you!), some teams no one gave 2 cents about moving on (Grizzlies), and some teams who may not have made it still fought to the end and provided us with some fun games (Pacers, Hornets). Well, with no further ado, let’s go straight into the 2nd round preview.

Eastern Conference
#3 Boston Celtics vs #2 Miami Heat

This series is one that everyone wanted to see. I, for one, had picked the Heat to win their 1st round matchup with the 76ers in 5 games, which they did in that exact number of games and in convincing fashion. On the other hand we get the Celtics who I expected to lose against the Knicks in 6 games, and boy was i wrong and badly wrong, they just ran over the Knicks who made it interesting in the first two games but after that it was all Celts who swept to advance into the second round.
Without a doubt these are the two teams people are most interested in from the Eastern Conference -the Bulls are the 3rd one, and my pick to advance to the NBA Finals but that is for another time- and wanted to get this matchup. Boston brings to the table their 3-headed monster: Ray Allen -the best pure shooter in the history of the game, still is at the age of 35-, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, while Miami has it’s on trio in the form of Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. Man to man I think the Heat’s Big 3 are a bit better than those of Boston but in the playoffs I still side with experience and true team playing.
Role player-wise both teams have some interesting players. Rondo had a huge triple-double vs NY but has a tendency to disappear in big games and is always a question mark in my book. You’ve also got players like Delonte West (Lebron James’ mom favorite player), Jeff Green and Big Baby. Anything Boston can do will hugely depend on what role players can do, every series you have these guys winning one or two games and that makes a difference.
Miami has some great players other than the Big 3: Big Z, James Jones, Mario Chalmers and Mike Bibby. I really expect Jones to be a huge factor in this series as Boston can be a little slow in transition defense and Jones will have some open looks from 3-point land.
I believe the Heat have the talent advantage while the Celtics have the experience edge. I really want LeBron to lose and take his talents on vacation, but I’m reluctantly going to pick the Heat to win in 6 games.
Pick: Miami Heat in 6 games.

#5 Atlanta Hawks vs #1 Chicago Bulls

In my last blog I predicted the Hawks to beat Orlando in 6 games which I got right. Also picked the Bulls to dispose in 5 games of the Pacers that was also right. I wrote that the winner of the Hawks-Magic series would not make it passed this second round against the Bulls and I’m keeping that prediction.
While the Bulls were pushed to the limit in the first 3 games by Indiana, and to be realistic they played pretty bad in the 1st 2 and still won; that is a testament of a great time, to be able to somehow win a game you did not deserve to win.

I’m not going into deep detail for this series as I expect the Bulls to take it pretty easily led by soon-to-be League MVP Derrick Rose, Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. This trio somewhat reminds me of the 90’s Bulls that had Jordan (Rose plays his role, NOT SAYING ROSE IS AS GOOD AS JORDAN, but he plays his role), Deng is the Pippen of this team and Noah is like Rodman who was all over the place, fought every ball to the death, didn’t have the best technique but his heart is bigger that anyone on the floor.
Pick: Chicago Bulls win this series in 5 games.

Western Conference
#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a series never in my wildest dreams expected to happen. Memphis had a date with the #1 seed San Antonio Spurs in the first round which I expected the Spurs to take easily but what happened on the court was a totally different story. The Spurs were outplayed, out matched, out hustled by the Grizzlies, who showed a ton of heart after that brutal loss in game 5 (the one with the Manu 3 (2) pointer, and the Gary Neal game tying 3 pointer as time expired to send it to overtime) to rebound and take it in game 6 in dominant fashion. The Thunder kicked the Nuggets out of contention in 5 games of what was a pretty fun series and gave us some entertaining games but in the end was dominated all the way by OKC.
For the second series in a row, Memphis will be the huge underdogs but without a doubt will go down fighting. I expect this to be a lot closer than what many people think, with the Zach “Blue Collar” Randolph led Grizzlies pushing Durant, Ibaka and Russell Westbrook to the limit.
Every game the Grizzlies win extends what has already been an improbable playoff run. Randolph has been superb and will need to continue to give Memphis a chance, he may have his way inside due to the lack of inside size for the Thunder. With all that being said, I think OKC has too much young talent, a great coach and lots of poise to make-up for the lack of experience.
Pick: Oklahoma Thunder in 7 games.

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs #2 Los Angeles Lakers

It is no secret that I’m a huge Laker fan so you can predict who I want to win , but I’ll try to be as objective as possible. Mavs won a hard fought 6 game series with the Blazers (I had it in 7 games), while the Lakers were given there moneys worth by the Hornets with also a 4-2 series win.
As always Dallas is a contender in the West but they are, as always, lacking the IT factor. The don’t have that inside dominant position; Kidd (at 38) and Nowitzki are amazing talents but a two man team will come up short at some point, or for the last 5-7 years.
The Lakers will have a huge size advantage with Bynum and Gasol on the inside. My question is, will we get the Gasol from game 1 against NO or the on from the final games in the regular series? That will be a deciding factor on who this series goes. You know Kobe will do his part, Fisher and Blake will do their thing, Odom will get it done, but Bynum and Gasol could make this a 4 game sweep or push the series deep.
Lakers weren’t impressive in the 1st round against New Orleans but I believe they will be much more dominant against Dallas as they match up so much better against them. CP3 gave the Lakers fits as they don’t have anyone fast enough to defend him but the Mavs don’t have a threat like that. Without a doubt LA must win game 1 to take control of the series and not be forced to win game 2. That being said…
My pick: Lakers in 5 games.

After a spectacular first round in the NBA Playoffs I hope we get more of the same great ball…

Who you got? Who’s your favorite

Mr Khakbaz out!!!